Optimistic vs Pessimistic: A really long Tour de France preview
Are you glass half empty, or glass half full for your favourite teams chances this year?
Using the past to predict what’s going to happen in a grand tour is an interesting dichotomy. On the one hand we have w/kg graphs, profiles of what riders do the best in the high mountains, and blueprints for how to win a tour. There is so much data that in a lot of ways, a tour has never been easier to predict.
On the flip side, each year brings a different parcour. The trend for young rising stars (with limited historic data) winning tours in year 1 or 2 continues. Injuries, form, weather, teams, mindset…the list of variables that keeps us guessing as to what will actually happen is the cocktail of unpredictability that keeps us hooked year on year.
The lead up to this years Tour has predominantly focused on round three of our heavyweight battle between Vingegaard and Pogačar. It seems like it was always destined to be this way, but last year our expectations were for another year of domination from the Slovenian. Things change pretty quickly over three weeks.
This means that despite all of our knowledge, there are no sure things. And, depending on your outlook, each team can convince themselves that they could have a sensational Tour, or a terrible one. So sit back, grab a coffee, as we look at the optimist and pessimists view for each team within the Tour de France 2023.
UAE Team Emirates
Optimistic
Despite everything that went wrong for UAE last year, they were only a few chances away from winning a 3rd consecutive tour. They can look back on both their bad luck, misfortune and tactical mistakes and conclude that they should have no doubt that they can bounce back and win the 2023 edition.
Lightning doesn’t strike twice right? Their team was absolutely decimated by illness and injuries in 2022. Trentin being replaced by a half-fit Hirschi started things off on a bad note. Staeke Lengen and Bennett were both out by Stage 10. Then all this was compounded by Soler OTL’ing after throwing up all day coupled with Majka’s freak mechanical/injury on the same stage (whilst also testing positive for COVID….).
Pogačar was fighting with one arm behind his back, especially when faced with a Jumbo team focused solely on defeating him. UAE will also consider themselves somewhat unlucky with the weather. The heat played far more into their competitors hands, especially on Stage 11 and the Pyrenees. Although climate changes makes it far more likely for this to become the norm, every mountain stage being ~30 degrees is unlikely over a three week grand tour.
Then there’s the main man himself.
With his performances this spring, Pogačar has reiterated that he is without doubt the best all around cyclist in the world, and his Paris-Nice performance in particular will show that on certain terrain, Pog can still put significant time gaps into Jonas. The wrist injury he sustained in LBL came at about the most perfect time it could have if he were to sustain an injury, and his performances in both the Slovenian TT and road race championships show that he is still a cut above almost anyone even after a long lay off.
There were also lessons from last year to takeaway. Despite him doing his best superhero impression on the Galibier, the end result will have given him a reality check of how to ride more sensibly to win another tour when the competition is of the quality of Vingegaard. He should expect to lose time to Jonas on Col de la Loze, but this year he should have learnt his lesson to not turn a 40 second gap into a 3 minute one. He can be incredibly confident that through time bonuses punchy stages and all around racing prowess, that he can comfortably make up the difference over three weeks. Despite the final time gap last year, some of his performances were still out of this world, even when he shipped significant time, and he was only a few moments away from winning three tours in a row. If the injury has zero impact on his form, UAE will hope that he is being underestimated by his rivals.
He’s also supported by potentially the biggest GC/domestique threat in the race in Adam Yates, which UAE will see as a big upgrade on the support for Pog over last year. In a best case scenario, Yates has great legs and is a threat to go up the road that gives Jumbo de ja vu in reverse. The rest of the team also looks strong. Majka as second last guy shows the additional depth, and Bjerg showed that he looked to be in form when beating Jonas on a hilly ITT at Suisse. Trentin and Groschartner have also been in good from throughout the season and form a solid backbone that they hope will represent Pogačar’s best supporting cast to date.
Pessimistic
Okay some things went wrong with the team in 2022, but surely you have to expect that over a grand tour? Almost every other team also suffered with either illness, injuries or accidents. And despite the team being somewhat weaker around him, there were still some monumental performances that failed to break Jonas.
The Bjerg & McNulty masterclass on the Peyragoudes stage was almost as good as anything Jumbo did throughout the Tour, but Pog couldn’t put the gaps he needed into Jonas to make it a closer affair. McNulty’s career pull in particular was so good, you wonder whether not bringing him is a missed trick. Similarly Majka ended up as the last domestique on Granon, showing that although Jumbo certainly had a stronger team, when it came to the climbs it was rare for Pogačar to be left alone.
Even though the team is stronger, there’s still question marks as to whether UAE would be able to control an in form Wout from getting up the road, and their two best mountain domestique are not necessarily stronger than the Kuss/Kelderman combination. Tactically, question marks always hang over UAE, and they will need to show that they’ve learnt how to use breakaways and satellite riders more effectively than they showed last year. No doubt about it, from a tactical perspective, Jumbo-Visma schooled them last year.
Then there’s Pog’s wrist and subsequent form. How confident are they that he’s had the ideal prep, especially considering how good Jonas looked at the Dauphiné? It’s tough to imagine that his preparation will have been near the level that it would have otherwise been. It will also be fascinating to see whether his focus on the Ronde Van Vlanderen, LBL and Flèche will have impacted his power curve. Questions have always remained about Pog at altitude and climbs over 30 minutes long. If Jonas can put 3 minutes into Pog on Col de la Loze, do they have any cards to play to make up that time elsewhere?
Jumbo-Visma
Optimistic
Maillot jaune, points competition, polka dots, and 6 stage wins.
Last year was as close to perfect a tour as you could get, and there’s no reason that they shouldn’t expect to repeat the feat of taking home both the maillot vert et jaune in 2023 as well. Even when there were sticky moments on comically large bikes, they ended up as nothing more than footnotes to some of the greatest tactical racing we’ve seen in recent Tours.
Sure, this year you’ve not got the dual threat of Rog and Vingegaard, but the team is about as strong as you could ask for and Jonas is looking in absolutely ominous form and has the confidence that he can crack Pogačar after his performances on both Col de Granon and Hautacam last year. They also had their share of bad luck; with Roglič and Kruijswijk crashing out of the tour, and ill timed mechanicals causing more stress than would have been in the game plan .
The team will have no reason to doubt that Wout van Aert can repeat 2022’s heroics. He could wrap up green (despite saying he’s not focusing on it) within the first week before transforming into the insane, one-of-a-kind satellite rider that he was last year. Kelderman slots in as one of Jonas’ general and easily outperforms any other domestique in the peloton apart from Kuss, who stays at the level he was for Roglič in the Giro.
The parcour is spikey, but Jonas will feel confident in his improvement on the shorter stuff. There are also still some tough, long days where Jumbo will be confident that the w/kg graphs won’t lie and Jonas will show that he is even further ahead of where he was last year. The blueprint is there and it’s just a matter of executing that plan and utilising their strength over the peloton. It’s clear that this Tour is, at most, a two horse race, and their main competition has been recovering from a significant injury. Jumbo will be confident that it’s their Tour to lose.
Pessimistic
Maillot jaune, points competition, polka dots, and 6 stage wins.
Last year was as close to perfect a tour as you could get, and it would be foolish to assume that they would be able to execute the same strategy, ride their luck in the same way and have all their riders all at the same level as last year.
And even though the end result of last year ended up being a significant and dominating time gap, it doesn’t tell the full story as to how close the result could have been.
Despite their tactical masterclass on the slopes of the Galibier, they were fortunate to be in a position where they weren’t significantly behind Pog and Thomas by stage 11. Whether it be not maximising a chance to take time on the Calais stage, a huge Wout pull digging them out of a hole on the cobbles to Arenberg or a few centermetres of difference in Jonas crashing in both the descent of Spandelles and the final time trial, the team flirted with disaster, but always managed to turn it into minimal losses. The team will be worried that they won’t be as fortunate this year and it seems as though Jonas, for all of his strengths, can get flustered when things don’t go well.
Without Roglič they also lose their psychological edge over the other main contenders. It is unlikely that Pog makes the same mistakes as last year and full on cracks, especially if the rider up the road is Kelderman rather than Roglič. That could change how much time Jonas may put into Pog on Col de la Loze or the Tourmalet, and impacts how they may need to race in the spikier territory more suited to their rivals. If Jumbo know anything, it’s that Pogačar will try and gain time over any and all stages.
And what about Wout? Last years performance will go down in history as one of the greatest hybrid performances ever and to repeat that will be a challenge. It is still mind blowing that he could have ended up in Green and Polka dots. At the Tour de Suisse he looked far from his best and Jumbo will be hoping that he will ride into better shape, but surely his 2022 level is not possible two years in a row. MvdP’s performance last year should be a warning shot that even generational talents can have bad grand tours. Jumbo will know that the threat of Wout up the road as a satellite rider was a key part of their success, and without him in that shape, his rivals will be a lot more confident letting him up the road.
INEOS Grenadiers
Optimistic
Despite coming into the 2022 Tour with question marks as to who their true GC leader was, everything worked out alright in the end. Geraint Thomas put in one of the performances of his career to take 3rd, clearly best of the rest after Jonas and Pog. The fact this combined with potentially one of the most iconic British stage wins on Alpe d’Huez, with the precocious all around bike talent that is Tom Pidcock, Ineos will be optimistic that they can pull some more rabbits out of hats to have a good 2023 tour.
Dani Martinez has shown over a one week race that when he’s on, he can compete with the best in the world, and the team will be tempted to write 2022’s performance will off as a blip on his record. There’s reason to believe that he can make that step up if his form and preparation hold up. The last podium spot is definitely up for grabs. Limited TT km’s also suit the GC contenders for Ineos, with Martinez and Pidcock in particular struggling in the discipline.
Talking of Tom, it’s clear that on his day that he can do pretty much anything he wants to on a bike. If he can improve on the consistency he managed to show last year and have one or two excellent days, there’s every chance that he can be a big player in the teams GC ambitions, either as co-leader or a lightweight domestique.
And what of Carlos Rodriquez? Yet another young talent that has shown flashes of brilliance. It feels like the plan has been for this years Tour to be his arrival on the GC scene. If he can find some good legs early on, he also might have the potential to stick around the GC battle and think about a top 5 or podium.
It’s also hard to feel too pessimistic at Ineos when you’re welcoming Egan Bernal back into the fold after his horrific crash and recovery. A genuinely heart warming return and some improving form at Suisse, means that there is some potential for him to potentially over-perform if he continues on the trajectory he’s shown. A top 10 isn’t out of the question, and that alone would be a success story.
If 2022 showed anything, it’s that Ineos are happy to let the big dogs scrap it out, sit tight and see where their chips fall.
Pessimistic
Could you say that Ineos lucked their way into a successful 2022 Tour? It certainly seems they weren’t as hot on G’s chances as he was on himself and who would have seriously expected Pidcock to have his coming out party on Alpe d’Huez?
Dani Martinez in particular was disappointing, falling out of GC contention early. Only a late flicker of a stage win up Hautacam showed off the immense potential he does have, but there is risk in hoping that that was a blip. Does he have the legs for a 3 week tour? Or is he the latest in Ineos grand tour hopefuls who can mix it with the best on one weeks, but fall by the wayside over the longer races?
Pidcock will hope for a stage victory, but will be a marked man given the respect he now holds in the peloton. Tom Pidcock, GC threat? I’m not so sure. The time trialing is a big problem, and even on this parcour I wouldn’t be confident that he won’t ship big time to those in the top 10. Time trialing, something Ineos are generally respected for, is certainly not the strength it once was. Hopefully both C Rod and Bernal can keep in contention.
The ultimate pessimists argument though is that they seem doomed to repeat the mistakes of last year; keeping too many riders close in GC, but never really threatening to use their numbers to do something special. It’s hard to know what was real from the Netflix show, but Pidcock’s critique of the teams strategy last year rang true. In Martinez, C Rod, Bernal and Pidcock, it’s hard to predict who is going to perform the best and it’s very easy to imagine that by not sacrificing any of them for one persons chance, they may whittle down their stages at both a stage and a decent GC position.
AG2R Citroën Team
Optimistic
It’s funny how a Netflix series can change your perception on a team and how their tour went in 2022. Despite everything, AG2R Citroen still pulled results out the bag despite ending the tour with a team of 3, and can be optimistic that they can build upon their results from last year.
Ben O’Connor looked pretty good fighting it out for the unofficial Australian climbing championships alongside Jai Hindley during the Critérium du Dauphiné and will surely have more luck than he had last year. If nothing else, we hope that Ben gets round safely and not forced to ride on with only one leg again.
They also do hold a lot of talent, and will be thinking about challenging for multiple stage wins, potentially with a Frenchman in Aurelian Paret-Paitre, the owner of one of our favourite names in the peloton. They also have chances with Felix Gall who showed precocious climbing form in Suisse, although they should try before the ITT in case he OTL’s. Benoît Cosnefroy is also always a wildcard who could make a bid for a stage as well.
Given that they achieved half their aim last year with Bobby Jungels stage win, they can feel very confident that they will be able to add Ben’s GC performance to a team that looks in decent form who have shown that they’re willing to try something in the mountains when they have a man in form.
Pessimistic
How much have AG2R convinced themselves that Ben O’Connor can replicate his 4th place in 2021 to make a successful tour? We will never know, but would the end result of last years tour been any better for the team than where they ended up with him injured?
GC is going to be pretty competitive this year, and although Ben can certainly mix it with riders such as Hindley, how much higher can he expect to get. The team is going to have a tough balance of keeping Ben close in GC whilst also prioritising big stages. I’m not confident that they will remember what got Ben into 4th in the first place; falling back in the GC and then building back up, and could compromise their teams stage ambitions without really driving Ben to the best result.
BORA - hansgrohe
Optimistic
Bora can feel excited that although they top 5’d the GC with Alexander Vlasov, maybe they can go even better in 2023. In Jai Hindley they have a rider that, provided he can find his Giro legs, can seriously challenge for the podium. The lack of TT km’s probably brings both Pog and Jonas a little closer, but also puts on the pressure from behind. Given the support that they’ve thrown around him, they’ll be confident that he will be able to exceed expectations and comfortably beat out his other rivals. It’s not the first time he’s been discounted as a GC contender.
Last year, the GC battle being what it was, robbed them of a few potential stages, with breakaway expert Lennard Kemna having a classic Super Planche des Belle Filles win pinched from him by the big boys in the final few metres. This year it looks like stages will be plan A-, unless Hindley drops out of contention very early, although Jungels showed last year that riders of his quality can help turn frowns upside down if things do take a turn for the worst and so they won’t be discounting their chances to build on the results of last year right across the board.
Pessimistic
This team feels like it’s the same plot, with slightly different characters. Hindley steps in for Vlasov. Jungels replaces Kemna. But will the results differ? It certainly looks like Hindley could ride himself onto the podium, but if he finishes outside the top 5, is this team in worse shape to try and rescue the tour than they were last year?
No Sam Bennett means that this is a gamble on breakaway stages and GC that may just come back to bite them, especially given sprint opportunities seem more plentiful than last year and breakaway stages might be hard to come by given other teams ambitions, and especially if Pog decides that bonus seconds will be the way he beats Jonas.
Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl Team
Optimistic
Last year’s unexpected yellow jersey, followed by Fabio Jakobsen’s redemption arc might make 2022 hard to top emotionally but the Wolfpack should feel positive about the fact that they may have a chance to bettering the results this time around. One of my favourite riders is back in his rightful home, and there is a very real chance that if Julian Allaphillipe can roll back the clock to before his LBL crash that he takes yellow on the first day.
Everything else is about maximising the chances of Fabio Jakobsen before his likely exit after this season. If the team can stay healthy, and given their luck during the Giro you’d hope they would be due some, then there the sprint opportunities seem tailor made for Quickstep to take multiple days in yellow and 2 or 3 sprint stages.
Pessimistic
If Jakobsen falters, what will constitute a good tour? Early and prolonged climbing may either dull the legs or force him OTL. There are also plenty of other teams who may bring better trains or sprinters in good form, so relying on a dominant sprint campaign is no sure thing.
And what to make of Jala? He’s shown flashes of his dazzling brilliance but yet to be able to put it together consistently since coming back from that horrific crash. If he doesn’t have his best legs, who behind him is likely to try and get a result away from the sprints? Given the talk around a potential Remco appearance at the Tour there could be a lot of the pressure on the team to deliver more than they did last year and we all know that big Daddy Patrick isn’t afraid to throw people under the bus.
Movistar Team
Optimistic
Another team that can be optimistic about their 2023 Tour chances based on the fact it can’t be much more underwhelming than 2022.
Enric Mas was disappointing with little form, yet showed in the third week of the Vuelta that if he finds his best, he can seriously challenge some of the top riders in the most challenging terrain. Given he’s been targeting the Tour more specifically this year, Movistar will be buoyed by the fact that the final podium place is up for grabs. Compared to the other contenders (Hindley, O’Connor, Carapaz, Skeljmose) he does seem a solid shout, and the lack of TT km’s is certainly a big opportunity for him to over-perform.
In retrospect Matteo Jorgensen really did save Movistar’s tour. He returns to the scene of his breakout where he finished in the top 20 of GC, and certainly caught everyones attention with his 4th in the Megève stage where he was arguably the strongest rider before he crashed. Following that up with his GC victory at the Tour of Oman, and 2nd at the Tour de Romandie showed that he can climb well, and could be a big help to Mas if he has a bad day and they need to limit his losses. Last year showed that you can’t compete with the big two, and that finishing best of the rest means limiting the really bad days. I think Jorgensen is a dark horse to execute the Ben O’Connor tactics of losing time early and then getting in breakaways in week 2 and 3 and maybe Top 5’ing the GC.
Movistar could also count themselves in the teams who really struggled with the break formation struggles last year, where a Carlos Verona style rider didn’t have much of an impact. They will be hoping that an Aranburu or Gurrerio can have more success, especially if GC doesn’t work out.
Pessimistic
A show of hands who trusts Movistar?
For one of the premier ‘national’ teams in the world tour, they have struggled in the Tour. A distant 4th place GC result for Mas in 2020 is about the best they’ve achieved in the last few years and it’s hard to believe that they will significantly outperform that. Jorgenson’s emergence is exciting, but might be shackled by a futile Mas GC attempt. It says something that Mas falling out of contention very early might actually be best for the team to go and hunt stages and maybe target a top 10 GC for either Mas or Jorgensen over the latter two weeks.
Speaking of Mas, his form in the Dauphiné looked incredibly worrying. The teams explanation that he was suffering with a severe stomach problem left more questions about the team and his dynamic than it answered. Hopefully for Mas he recovers and shows his Vuelta 2022 week 3 legs and competes with the other second tier guys, but it would be a big turnaround from what he showed a few weeks a go.
And the rest of the team? They will be hoping that the Tour ends up being more like this years Giro, where breakaways were the flavour of the month. If Pogačar decides to make every day a race day like he did last year though, I wouldn’t be optimistic about the breaks being given long leashes as he hunts bonuses.
Cofidis
Optimistic
Relative to other teams in the peloton, Cofidis actually had a pretty good tour by their standards and hopefully learnt some lessons in how to effectively compete and continue to outperform their budget in 2023.
Last years surprise package was Simon Geschke, who came painfully close to taking the polka dot jersey, only to lose it on the final big mountain stage to Hautacam. Even though he didn’t win outright, Cofidis still got to have a guy wear one of the jerseys on the Champs d’Elysses, a big result for them and their sponsors. Given the points allocation remains the same as last year, you would imagine that Cofidis may target the jersey and hope that other teams ignore it yet again. This might be unlikely, where they might be victims of their own success, but they do have a few riders who could compete.
They also seem to have been more competitive this year and should be hopeful of targeting a stage with someone such as Martin, Izagirre, Coquard or Lafay. None of these guys will be a favourite, but they have a few lottery tickets they could play on breakaway stages.
Pessimistic
It’s pretty rare for a Cofidis to have two half decent Tours in a row. If they decide that targeting the polka dots is their best chance to make something of the race, they may find that they have more competitors than last year, where no one seemed to specifically target it. Given that certain french riders are performing in their last tour, I think it’s highly unlikely that we see the same kind of competition as last year.
This leaves stage hunting as their best chance of success. The parcour of the first stage means that the prospect of being in yellow at all is very unlikely, so they will be yet another team hoping that the break formation differs from last year. Despite having a relatively strong group of guys for their team size, they will all likely be underdogs in most breakaway groups and might be lucky to take anything more than a stage podium or some breakaway exposure.
Bahrain - Victorious
Given the recent events, it felt wrong to categorise the team as Optimistic or Pessimistic and so I’ve just written a summary. Gino Mäder’s death will no doubt impact this team but it feels invasive to project or predict how it may do so. My thoughts remain with the family, friends and teammates of Gino.
The nearly team of last years Tour, Bahrain should be confident that they can turn a few of their close results into a couple of stage wins.
Fred Wrights arrival as a top tier breakaway rider in 2022 was one of the stories of British cycling, where he was unlucky to not win a stage of either the Tour or the Vuelta. His performance in the British championships last week has hopefully taken the monkey off his back with his first pro win, and will have the added motivation of winning a Tour de France stage in the British champs jersey.
The team will have some quiet optimism that Phil Bauhaus may be able to steal a sprint stage if it gets messy or the weather plays a part and similarly you can never discount Matej Mohorič doing Matej Mohorič things. I think he could definitely be targeting one of the stages with a few descents late on.
The GC group is interesting. Bilbao, Haig, Landa and Poles is a pretty strong group of riders, and if they were to work together, could definitely work over the teams of a similar level to try and get a top 5 for one of them. However history has shown that Bahrain struggle to get a their riders to work together and so it’s probably more like that they end up with a few guys in the top 20 of GC and may end up with a stage win. Bilbao in particular will fancy his chances in one of the hilly/mountain stages that the big GC teams might not target, and as a Basque native, might target yellow on stage 1.
Groupama - FDJ
Optimistic
David Gaudu’s 4th place finish in last years tour was a big result for Groupama-FDJ and they will be feeling very optimistic about going one better and landing on the podium. The controversial decision to leave Arnaud Demare at home watching from the sofa, means that they have a team (almost) dedicated to making sure that he does go one better. His shape at Paris-Nice up against Jonas and Pog was very exciting and if he can reproduce that form, could be the next best guy.
They will also hope that bringing TeeboPeeno to his swan song Tour de France will end with a stage win. They should also think about targeting the polka dot jersey to double up on Pinot’s KOM win at the Giro this year. Finishing top 5 in the Giro was very impressive, and given Gaudu’s shape at Dauphiné, he could be legitimately their best chance of top 10’ing the GC if he falls out of contention early. In terms of the sponsors and coverage, is it also that controversial to suggest that a beloved Pinot stage win and polka dot win would be far more exciting than a distant 3rd place for Gaudu? If I was Groupama-FDJ’s sponsors, I know which I would prefer.
The parcour of this years tour definitely suits the guys less strong in the TT’s such as Pinot and Gaudu. Unfortunately for Küng though this means that there aren’t enough TT km’s to think that he has a serious chance of winning Tour stage this year. Perhaps his attempt to transform himself into a more climby TT guy means that he may target a rouler style breakaway instead.
Pessimistic
Gaudu did not look good in his tune up race, and that is now a big worry given the fact they’ve built the team around him. Given the excitement around him after Paris-Nice, his Dauphiné was very disappointing, even if both he and the team did not seem particularly worried. If he bombs, there will be big questions around the team selection.
I also think that, despite last years performance being a big achievement, Groupama-FDJ may have convinced themselves that Gaudu is better than he might actually be. He was very fortunate to get towed back on the Granon stage which stopped him from losing big time, and a few breaks went his way that mean he may have significantly over performed his actual level.
The selection of Pinot is also a double edged sword, especially given the emotional connection he has with the public, who will want to see him go out on top. If Gaudu is on top form, then Pinot could become a distraction for the team. He will undoubtedly target stages (and probably KOM) and that will either be a blessing or a curse. It’s most certainly a risk.
Outside of these two guys, it’s hard to see where a stage win will come from and so a lot is riding on the form of Gaudu. Valentin Madouas may be able to target a stage, and will have the added motivation of being in the French national champs stripes.
It’s disappointing that neither Lenny Martinez or Romain Grégoire aren’t here to maybe provide a glimpse of France’s future. Grégoire especially will have fancied maybe taking the first stage.
Alpecin-Deceuninck
Optimistic
Yet another team that will have mixed feelings about their 2022 tour, and therefore be much more optimistic about their 2023 chances.
Last year was probably a wake up call that this team can’t completely revolve around Matthieu van de Poel. Flogging him at the Giro and Tour was a bad call in hindsight, and it looks like they’ve learnt their lessons on how they should manage their premier talent. His sensational spring, subsequent break, and then domination in the Beloise Tour gives far more hope that he won’t be languishing at the back of the peloton like last year. Stage 1 is also a potential opportunity to have a stage or two in the maillot jaune with one of the biggest stars in the sport.
Despite the disappointment with MvdP, Alpecin did at least manage to salvage something from the Tour with two wins from Jasper Philipsen, including the coveted Champs d’Elyssee stage. For most teams, two stages (especially stage 21) would be an overwhelming success and has probably kick started the next phase of Alpecin-Fenix’s growth as a team beyond MvdP.
Philipsen looks the best sprinter in the world at the moment, and he should be very optimistic about his chances in this Tour de France. Their team looks much stronger than last year and it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if they dominate the sprints. His climbing ability also means that they really should be thinking about targeting the points jersey. In MvdP they have the perfect guy to try and steal intermediate sprint points off of Wout van Aert and give Philipsen the best chance of winning green. If they do seriously target green, they may indirectly influence the GC quite significantly. It would be fascinating to see how Jumbo react to not having Wout dominate the green jersey.
Søren Kragh Andersen gives this team an additional third option for a stage win, where he will be a big threat if he manages to sneak away late in a breakaway.
Pessimistic
This is one of the teams that is harder to be pessimistic about. Given that MvdP was not himself last year, it’s a big upgrade if he’s even at 75% of his best.
The one area that may dampen their optimism would be if Philipsen isn’t in the form that he’s shown so far in 2023. Fabio Jakobsen will have something to say about his claim to best sprinter in the world and winning a Tour de France sprint stage is still a challenge, even for the very best.
Winning green will also be challenging if they do target it, and if that is one of their aims for the season, they may come home a little disappointed.
Team DSM-Firmenich
Optimistic
A 6th place for Romain Bardet was probably an over performance, but there’s no reason to see why he’d be significantly worse than last year. There’s a glut of riders of a similar level and if he has peaked correctly he could definitely get another top 10 GC. Also throw him into the group that benefits from the amount of TT km’s on offer (there’s a theme here…). DSM & new sponsors Firmenich will hope he repeats his ability to prominent in a couple of stages as he tries to claw time back. For a rider who finished 6th, it felt like he got a lot of screen time last year.
They will also be optimistic that they can perform better in stages with either Bardet, or more likely, Tour debutant Sam Welsford. They will be disappointed if they come away without a stage win in one of the sprints, with Welsford looking good throughout 2023, but yet to prove it on the biggest stage. You’d imagine that the new sponsors would be particularly pleased with a win on the Champs d’Elysee and that they will be firmly targeting that.
Pessimistic
If Bardet doesn’t have good legs and it turns out that last year was an over performance, because of the glut of good-but-not-elite GC guys in the race, he could easily find himself languishing in no mans land. If he is going to finish outside the top 10, the team will likely want that to happen early on so that it opens up a chance of a stage. I don’t trust that the team will be smart enough to lose time on purpose and go stage hunting.
For the sprints, Welsford will be at best third favourite for the opening sprint stages, so there is no guarantee that they come home with a stage win. The train is okay, but not elite, and they are betting on Welsford maybe taking an extra kick on.
This team in particular looks like they could get caught in a sticky position in both GC and sprints, and end up achieving neither of their goals.
Intermarché - Wanty - Gobert Matériaux
Optimistic
I know that we’re meant to be looking at last years Tour to see why we should be optimistic, but I will make an exception.
Biniam Girmay.
The Eritrean starts his first Tour de France with a lot of expectation, but the team will be hoping that he continues his groundbreaking rise as the first black African to win a stage of the Tour de France. His sprint at Tour de Suisse was very exciting, flat out beating Wout from far out. If he does manage to win a stage win, the team will consider it success. But there is more to the team than just Bini.
With Meintjes 7th place in GC, Intermarché showed their knack for finding talent at good value contracts and will hope that both he, and riders such as Zimmerman and Costa can land a stage win from a mountain break. It would be unlikely that Meintjes will be able to replicate his 7th place, but he did still look good at the Dauphiné so the team will likely try and keep him in a solid position.
Pessimistic
A lot rides on Bini and the team around him will have their work cut out to get him in the best position in bunch sprints. If he doesn’t grab a stage win, then a lot will likely fall on the trio of Meintjes, Zimmerman and Costa where they will be really dependent on how the break formation pans out across the Tour. Similarly to riders such as Bardet, they may end up in a position where they risk wasting a few opportunities for Meintjes to win a stage to protect a potential top 10 GC position.
Astana Qazaqstan Team
Optimistic
Another team that’s looking far more optimistic this year than last.
Lutsenko’s top 10 finish was a good return for a team that didn’t have much hope in other stages. They will be feeling good that he can yet again finish in a similar position. They should lean into the fact that he won’t be seen as a serious threat, especially given that this year their attention may be elsewhere…
Mark Cavendish has provided Astana with the biggest opportunity to gain serious sponsor exposure since they were competing for GC almost 10 years a go with Vincenzo Nibali. They will be going all in on delivering that elusive, record breaking stage win, and anything other than that stage will be a disappointment. Although they may have needed to rely on some friendly pulls from British riders, his final day win at the Giro shows he still has good pace if put in a good position. A stage win with Cav plus a top 20 GC finish with Lutsenko is definitely achievable and they will be confident in landing both.
Pessimistic
All in on Cav with this team feels hopeful, but is it realistic? God knows they need the UCI points.
The train doesn’t look great and they will be praying for Cees Bol finds something from somewhere after showing very little throughout the season to date. Lutsenko will probably be fending for himself in the mountains and is in that strong mix of guys from 4th-20th, where he will need even better legs to repeat last years feat.
EF Education-EasyPost
Optimistic
Last years Tour somewhat saved EF’s season, bringing them out of the relegation battle where they bounced back with a strong end of season performance.
Neilson Powless was probably a touch unlucky not to win a stage, and he will be hoping that Bettiol doesn’t end up pulling in a group with his BFFL Pogačar again. Magnus Cort’s win was huge for them, and he will be hopeful of one of the lumpy stages going his way again.
They actually boast one of the strongest squads top to bottom in terms of stage hunting, and they will fancy themselves in all but the bunch sprints to take stages where the break goes clear.
They also bring a true GC threat (sorry Hugh) to a grand tour in Carapaz. EF will have been building him up all year to this, and with Powless, Chaves and Uran, he has a useful array of climbing buddies to help him through any particularly bad days. The Dauphiné showed that he was nowhere near the class of Jonas then, but out of any of the others he has the credentials to probably be third favourite. I would go so far as to say that out of all the other contenders, an in form, at-his-best, Carapaz, on a parcour with less TT km’s than usual, could be the only person to potentially challenge the duopoly of Pog and Jonas. EF are in uncharted waters supporting a true GC threat but have put a strong team around him. It wouldn’t surprise me if they are ultra aggressive to try and force mistakes from the favourites.
Pessimistic
EF feel like they are always promising to truly breakthrough, without getting the really big results to push them over the edge. They have a super strong team, but there is every chance that they come away with no stage wins and a top 20 GC position.
Carapaz’s form in the Dauphiné did not look fantastic, and if they force the issue, or he stays close for too long, they fit the mark as a team who may have sacrificed some serious chances at stage wins for a mediocre GC result. It’s fair to say that they should risk that, given Carapaz’s upside but the parcour is overall a bit too medium mountainy for him to be at his absolute best.
If Carapaz falls away early, EF will also be one of the teams praying for breaks to be able to form much easier than they were last year, although the respect the peloton has for some of their more established riders may give them a shorter leash than they have been used to.
Team Arkéa Samsic
Optimistic
This is a team that’s almost impossible to be optimistic for based on the results of last year. Quintana’s eventual qualification put a dampener on their achievements as a team, even though you would likely argue that he pulled that result out of the bag by himself in the first place.
Warren Barguil never really got himself into true contention for a stage win last year, but the team will be hoping that he can get into a break that goes all the way. He’s also an outside shout for a tilt at the polka dots if in good form. They should look at national rivals Cofidis and what they did with Geschke last year as inspiration; a firing and fit Barguil fits the natural profile of a polka dot jersey winner much more than Geschke and may be seen as the perfect person to give yellow away to. Champoussin is the only other rider I’d see as an outside shot of a stage win.
Pessimistic
If WaWa doesn’t have a good day then it’s really hard to see Arkea getting anything out of this Tour. They are one of the more perplexing teams in the peloton, where it’s very hard to guess what the strategy is or what would be considered a successful three weeks.
Lotto Dstny
Optimistic
This is a team that will not look fondly on 2022, so can only look at their chances in 2023 as an almost certain improvement. They run it back with Caleb Ewan as their main threat for a stage. He still certainly has the top speed to win multiple stages of a grand tour, but his positioning and ability to be fought off a wheel isn’t a good sign for the most competitive sprint races in the calendar. Lotto will be hopeful though that he will get at least one chance to take advantage and deliver the win that eluded them in 2022.
They also bring a classic looking squad that may try and spring some surprises in the breaks, and look stronger than last year. Campanearts, Vermeesch, and Van Gils will all fancy a tilt at different stages. The team will be optimistic that each day they will have a break to fight for, even if it doesn’t always come off.
Pessimistic
Ewan hasn’t looked confident in sprints where there’s a lot of jostling, and will likely want to hope for some messy sprints where he may be able to take advantage of some chaos and surf a wheel a little easier. As it gets tight, he definitely seems to be bullied off wheels quickly, and the Tour de France is as competitive as it gets. It would probably be a surprise if he comes away with more than one stage, despite still being one of the fastest men on paper.
Despite the rest of the squad looking a bit stronger than last year, their guys are still probably a notch below other teams that will look to get into the break, so they’ll still need a lucky break here or there to convert a breakaway opportunity into a stage win. It’s also a shame that we don’t get to see Arnaud de Lie make his Tour debut, as I think he has the talent to win a stage and would have added an additional weapon, even if it would have been challenging to manage both Ewan and de Lie in the same squad.
Lidl-Trek
Optimistic
Lidl-Trek bring both an exciting new kit/sponsor and one of the more exciting wild card squads into this year Tour that can certainly look to build on last years good-but-not-great performance.
Pedersen is clearly a threat in any sprints with a kick just before or during the sprint. His whole 2022 showed his class and he will fancy stealing one of the tougher sprint stages, even if a Philipsen or van Aert may climb just as well as him.
In Mattias Skjelmose they bring in one of the dark horses of the GC battle. His Tour de Suisse win was remarkably composed, and he looks to be in great form coming into his biggest race to date. The TT looks like one he may perform extremely well at, and I would fancy him against a lot of the other contenders hunting that third spot. He has shown that he will race smart, but with a kick that means he can be aggressive when he needs to be. I have high hopes for him, and think his price in the betting markets is ludicrously high in comparison to others. If he happens to fall out of GC contention, he will also be a big threat for a stage win from a break.
Ciccone is an excellent foil to bring with Skjelmose. His win in the final Dauphiné stage (even with dropped sunglasses) continued to prove his climbing prowess and he’s shown consistent form all year. He’s one of the riders I’m most certain will win a stage from the break. If Skjelmose stays close in GC, he will also be a useful co-leader/domestique.
Simmons, El Patron and Stuyven will also be threats if they get in the right breaks and stack up really well against teams with similar ambitions.
Pessimistic
It’s honestly quite hard to be pessimistic about this team in 2023…until you look at the squad from 2022. It is very similar to last year, so there’s every chance they don’t perform as well as I expect them to. Skjelmose gives them a much better chance at performing in the GC, but as we’ve seen with numerous teams in the past, the allure of a top 10 GC position ends up cannibalising stage ambitions. There’s also no guarantee that Pedersen wins a stage. As fantastic a sprinter as he is, in the Giro he’s shown that he’s easily beatable if not in fantastic form. Running it back with a similar approach might be a really smart approach, but there is a chance that the end result stays similar or worse than last year.
TotalEnergies
Optimistic
Another french team optimistic that 2023 just has to be better than 2022. Sagan has come close in a couple of races recently, even if only in the top 5. Given it’s also his Tour de France swan song, you’d imagine that the team will be cooking up a plan to give him that thank you present.
Outside of Sagan, the team will be hoping that a Boasson-Hagen, Latour or Brugeadeau may be able to nick a stage from somewhere or at least feature prominently enough to gain some exposure.
Pessimistic
You can’t help but feel that this team is shackled by Sagan, and that they will be able to improve once he moves on. It’s really not clear how they win a stage without him, but is it realistic that they win a stage with him? It will be interesting to see whether he can ride himself into enough form to at least be competitive in some of the reduced sprints, but his form suggests that he just won’t be able to stick with the best. There is every chance that the team is completely anonymous across the whole three weeks.
Israel - Premier Tech
Optimistic
Probably the team that over-performed both relative to expectations and budget last year, with stage wins from Hugo Houle (the first stage I ever witnessed live) into Foix, and Simon Clarke on the cobbles at Arenberg. Even Froome had probably his best day in an Israel jersey on Alpe d’Huez.
The team brings an exciting looking squad that really looks to be working towards a much brighter future than 18 months a go. They’ve made big calls to leave both Froome and Fulgsang at home, but this will reduce the risk that the team think about GC even for a second. Hopefully they’ve learnt from the Giro and Gee-mania that for a team like IPT, stage hunting is the best way of being relevant in a grand tour. Their haul of UCI points at the Giro will also be a signal to a bunch of other teams languishing towards the bottom of the table to throw away any half baked GC ambitions, which should hopefully make for an exciting Tour.
Reading through the squad, all of Woods, Houle, Strong, Schultz, Clarke and Teuns can all be genuinely optimistic of bringing home some stage wins. They are one of the few teams that you feel will be able to force a result through strength of depth.
Pessimistic
Another squad that it’s hard to be super pessimistic about, but with a stage hunting team, you still need a lot to go right to bring home the metaphorical bacon. Whether it be tough break formation, or crashes or illness, timing will be crucial to whether they can match last years result.
Team BikeExchange - Jayco
Optimistic
This is a team that can feel relatively confident in repeating their feats from last year, whilst also keeping some optimism that they could improve on the two stage wins the did win.
Groenewegen is one of cyclings premier sprinters and will likely take at least one stage. The team is based around him for the most part and although the sprint field is strong, he will have confidence that if he peaks in top form, it’s not impossible that he comes away as the best pure sprinter over the three weeks.
Yates is set up nicely to see if he can follow the GC leaders around the mountains whilst staying out of no mans land. It would be great to see him lose some time early, before launching a trademark long range attack to bring himself back into contention on one of the big alpine stages. I doubt that he will be seen as a threat even for the top 5, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he over-performs. He is potentially one of the hardest cyclists to predict, but has the raw talent to put in some crazy numbers.
The rest of the team is fine with some quality riders, and a Mezgec’s type rider could sneak a stage win.
Pessimistic
A lot of eggs are in the Groenewegen basket, and as we’ve already seen, the sprint field is competitive. I really worry about how difficult this Tour is going to be to get around for the sprinters, and Groenewegen will do very well to get around this course. If nothing else, it is likely that the near constant climbing across three weeks is likely to deaden his legs, so you’d hope that they specifically target the early sprint stages whilst he’s fresh.
This team does look like it is a Michael Matthews short of where it was last year in terms of its realistic ambitions for extra stages beyond the bunch sprints. He’s such a unique profile of rider that really opens up some of the miscellaneous reduced group stages as huge opportunities for Jayco.
It’s understandable that Jayco have faith in Yates, and if they seem him doing some good training numbers they will be confident in his form, but it does seem a long shot for him to be a favourite for any of the stages that really suit him. If Pog decides that chaos is the order of the day to try and force a result at the Tour, then a rider like Yates could be the kind that loses from the GC battle heating up around him.
Uno-X
As their first Tour, everything they’ve achieve this Tour is a bonus. We don’t want to bring any pessimistic takes and will review how they do at the end of the Tour.
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So what do you think? Who do you think will over-perform? Are there any takes you think I’m dead wrong on? Please leave comments below and enjoy the Tour.